Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

538
FXUS64 KOUN 031643
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1043 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1039 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

- Seasonable temperatures through the week with modest day to day
  variations.

- Medium rain chances across the southeast on Wednesday; low rain
  chances across the south on Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

A cold and dry air mass has settled into place and (aided by strong
radiational cooling) is bringing temperatures down into the 20s
across most of the forecast area this morning.

Winds will shift back to southerly today (mainly light; some
afternoon breeziness in northwest Oklahoma) and high temperatures
will rise into the 50s under sunny skies.

With southerly surface flow back in place combined with a slight
overnight breeze (~7-10 mph) and increasing clouds (mainly southern
Oklahoma and north Texas), low temperatures will be warmer tonight
(mid 30s to mid 40s).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 207 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Southerly surface flow bringing in warm, moist air will set
Wednesday up both to be the warmest day this week (highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s) and to have a decent chance (30-50%) for rain across
south central Oklahoma (aided by an upper wave moving through the
Great Lakes region). The warmer temperatures will be short-lived,
however, as another cold front is set to enter northern Oklahoma
early Wednesday afternoon. Interestingly, between the front to the
north and cloud cover / rain chances in the southeast, the axis of
highest temperatures is most likely to be along the I-44 corridor.

Northerly surface flow will return us to a cool and dry pattern
starting Wednesday night. Thursday highs will be in the 40s and 50s,
followed by another widespread freeze Thursday night.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 207 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Synoptic uncertainty increases toward the weekend as models struggle
to know when to eject a cutoff low spinning over the southwest U.S.,
though nearly all ensemble solutions suggest a warming trend. Low
rain chances (20%) will also return to southern parts of the
forecast area over the weekend (centered mainly on Friday night).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR ceilings at most TAF sites for the entire period with mainly
mid/highs clouds although a few sites could see low VFR ceilings
in the morning. The exception is at KDUA where MVFR ceilings will
be possible Wednesday morning. Southerly winds will continue until
a cold front begins to move into parts of the area Wednesday
morning causing winds to shift towards the NW. There is a chance
for showers and maybe a few storms across parts of the fa
Wednesday morning. The most likely and possibly only TAF site to
be affected would be KDUA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  40  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         52  39  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  56  44  65  38 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           57  38  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  37  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         54  39  55  38 /   0  10  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25