Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

977
FXUS64 KOUN 101952
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
152 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024


- Patchy fog possible early Monday morning.

- Patchy frost possible Monday morning NW OK, again and possibly
  more widespread Thursday.

- Marginal risk for severe storms late Tuesday far western
  Oklahoma.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

With surface high pressure centered over the southern Plains, the
wind will remain light to calm this evening and overnight.
Radiational cooling will be excellent, so there still appears to
be a chance of at least patchy fog developing by sunrise Monday.
HREF probabilities of visibility below 1 mile are around 20-40
percent, and mainly across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Any fog that develops overnight, will dissipate by mid morning.
Otherwise, Monday will bring another day of delightful weather with
afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High clouds should
increase some during the morning and afternoon, but the wind will
remain rather light.

The wind will increase some Monday night, especially across the
western half of Oklahoma, as a trough approaches from the west.  A
few models suggest fog may develop across western Oklahoma with very
weak moisture advection.  However, surface streamlines suggest we
will continue to circulate air from our east which is modestly dry
for early November.  Variable high clouds will continue to stream
across our area as well.

On Tuesday, a trough is expected to move across the Intermountain
West and into the central U.S. by early Wednesday morning. This
will bring a noticeable increase in southerly winds during the
day, especially across the western half/third of Oklahoma and
western north Texas. By mid to late afternoon, enough moisture may
increase across the Panhandles to bring a slight chance of
showers/storms near a boundary in the central Texas Panhandle.
Instability is expected to be weak/limited but perhaps enough for
a strong storm or two. Precipitation that continues into the
evening and overnight will be more elevated, but again,
instability appears to remain on the weak side.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

A cold front will move across the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday,  Gusty northwesterly winds can be expected behind
the front.  As mentioned below, the airmass behind the front will
not be overly cold. Overall, very few changes were made to the
extended forecast.


Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

New airmass behind the front will not be all that cold, but could
result in frost or a light freeze across northern and western parts
of Oklahoma if the winds settle down enough Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. Warming trend will begin on Thursday with highs
back into the 70s, if not a few 80s, by next weekend. Models are in
a fair amount of disagreement on timing of next major weather
system, but it appears rain chances will increase by the end of the
weekend or early the following week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR category is expected at all terminals through early Monday
morning amidst light winds and clear skies. After 07-09 UTC on
Monday, areas of radiational fog are expected to emerge from north
Texas into northern Oklahoma. At this update, confidence/signal is
greatest for reduced category (to as low as IFR/LIFR) at KSPS and
KPNC, though is possible (20-40%) at any terminal along and east
of Interstates 44/35 through mid-morning Monday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  69  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         42  70  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  45  71  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           39  70  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     42  68  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         48  73  48  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09